Business IdeasBeyond global warming
Business Standard / New Delhi January 22, 2010, 0:58 IST
Climate change science is about as exact a science as economics. There are so many variables and imponderables involved in both disciplines that it is impossible to predict, with any degree of precision, what will result and when. For instance, despite all the dire warnings about global warming, the last 10 years have been cooler than the year that went before—mostly because 1998 was a particularly hot year. Such contrary facts encourage the use of caution when approaching firm predictions as to when exactly the earth will have warmed by 2 degrees Celsius. Even though this is a quite different issue from the bogus science that now stands exposed, on the issue of when the Himalayan glaciers will melt, it is worth keeping in mind that even bogus science becomes mainstream fact only when the prevailing climate of opinion permits. In that sense, the world may now be ready for a more careful debate that focuses on reliable probabilities than on dubious certainties.
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None of this should lead anyone to believe that global warming is not a risk, any more than it should permit laxity in taking the action required to prevent such warming. The potentially catastrophic consequences that could result from climate change are such that the risk must be minimised if not eliminated. It is in this context that Jairam Ramesh’s ambitious agenda for reducing the emissions-intensity of India’s economic activity is to be welcomed. The broad approach is correct: The government will set standards, and industry will be asked to comply. The standards will cover everything from the carbon footprint created by thermal power generation to emissions by automobiles, while the ministry will also stipulate benchmarks for everything from industrial activity to buildings, and the relationship between mining and deforestation. In addition, the minister for environment and forests proposes to bring before Parliament a Bill that will permit a domestic cap-and-trade mechanism for rewarding those who score credit points on the green agenda.
It is especially to be welcomed that Ramesh is focusing on important environmental issues that are unrelated to the issue of the moment (i.e. climate change). He has done well to systematically monitor the levels of pollution at 88 industrial clusters, with a view to tackling the problem at each of them. He has already banned further industrial activity at two, provoking predictable protest from the state governments involved. All this is over and above his initial drive to clean up his ministry and make its functioning transparent — though critics will say that the clearance that he has given to the Posco project, overriding many protests, is in preparation for the visit of the South Korean president. Sometimes, it would seem, diplomacy gets precedence over the environment.
This ambitious range of initiatives raises many questions about the quality of the machinery that will monitor things for the government. It is clear that the existing state pollution control boards have failed. Ramesh’s solution is to create a central environment protection agency, along the lines of what exists in the US. What shape this will take and how it will work remain key questions.